Monthly Notes
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Economic Growth Still Steady, Carried by Investment. Tariffs are Back. The build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers continues to elevate business investment and profits, framing a constructive backdrop for risk assets, even at somewhat extended valuations. Job growth is improving after slumping in 2025, helping to keep consumer spending…
Chart of the Month: Economy is Coasting, But Inflation Remains a Thorn in the Market’s Side Indicators of economic growth remain solid but price inflation remains well ahead of the Fed’s target and it is perpetually pestering both equity and bond markets. Employment appears to be strengthening, aiding the growth…
Economy Steady, but as Peace Deal Emerges, Inflation Remains Top of Mind Growth indicators remained steady in June, with both the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs continuing to beat economists’ estimates, but inflation readings continued to come in well above the Fed’s comfort level. As we pointed out back in…
May’s Top Take – Earnings Make the World Go Round If May proved anything it’s that earnings seasons can quickly change the market narrative. Even though the economy rose merely 1.6% in the first quarter on lackluster consumer spending growth, it was a banner quarter for US companies amid rapid…
