Market Sense
Market Sense is HB Wealth’s recurring economic and market research, authored by Gina Martin Adams, Michael Casper, and Matthew Sanders. These insights offer perspective on current market conditions, economic trends, and investment risks across short- and long-term horizons.
By:
Sign Up for Our Market Sense
Sector dispersion – measured by the difference between the best and worst performing sectors – has been notably tight relative to longer term norms in 2026 as the rising economic tide may be lifting most “boats” in the equity market. Tight dispersion normally occurs in the early to middle stages…
The Fed’s recent shift toward a more hawkish bias has merit, according to measures of financial conditions as well as economic performance. Financial conditions are easier than any point since early 2022, boosted by ebullient equity markets, and the current combination of growth and inflation suggests the Fed funds rate…
Economy Steady, but as Peace Deal Emerges, Inflation Remains Top of Mind Growth indicators remained steady in June, with both the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs continuing to beat economists’ estimates, but inflation readings continued to come in well above the Fed’s comfort level. As we pointed out back in…
Abstract: Russell’s now semiannual reconstitution will take effect on June 29th and the event looks poised to contribute some volatility to the index this summer as changes take hold. SpaceX will grab all the headlines, officially entering the Russell 1000 after Friday’s close but the real story may be how…
Abstract: Oil is down almost 30% over the past month, and inflation breakevens have fallen right along with it. Yet, Fed Funds futures have only moved in the direction of future hikes. If inflation expectations are dropping, some may ask why rate-cut expectations are not dropping as well. The reason…
Financial markets’ inflation expectations have stabilized with peace talks in the Middle East, but it may be up to the Fed to help tame the inflation beast in the real economy. After years of above average inflation, consumer inflation expectations and small business inflation concerns both appear somewhat entrenched. Consumer…
Abstract: The Magnificent-7 has struggled relative to the rest of the market for most of this year, but unlike in 2022, the slowdown in this group is not taking down the market at large. If the consensus of Wall Street analysts is correct, 2Q could be the last quarter of…
Abstract: SpaceX kicked off what is likely to be a wave of historically large IPOs with its debut on the U.S. market last week. The stock surged 19.2% on its first day of trading, right on the average first-day pop of 19% for IPOs since 1980. New offerings of equities…
The US’ strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is hitting some of the lowest levels since the 1980s as drawdowns reaccelerated with the conflict in Iran and could approach its lower limits if a proposed peace deal falls through yet again or if traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. The…