Market Sense
Market Sense is HB Wealth's recurring economic and market research, authored by Gina Martin Adams, Michael Casper, Adam Shealy, Matthew Sanders, and Max Hurd. These insights offer perspective on current market conditions, economic trends, and investment risks across short- and long-term horizons.
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Abstract: The price of silver has seen significant growth since 2025, meaningfully outperforming gold and copper and reaching an all-time high of $121.65 per ounce on January 29, 2026. The rally began more as an investment story rather than an industrial demand story. Industrial demand provided a tailwind, but the…
Mind the Middle of the Curve! Treasury intervention to stem the yield rise at the long end of the curve combined with speculation on the near-term direction of the Fed funds rate may continue to create fireworks on both the short and long ends of the curve but also leave…
Abstract: The theme of this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”, points to topics like payment rails, tokenization, and digital settlement, rather than an economically focused conference. This implies any macro content is likely to be in Warsh’s opening remarks, and brief at best. Yet,…
Abstract: Contrary to popular narratives, investment booms of the last 150 years do not show a consistent boom-bust cycle pattern in stocks. Each case recorded a remarkably different price pattern. Some started slow and built equity market optimism over long periods, others raced hard at the start and ended early. …
Abstract: Growth and value indices are sending a lot of mixed messages this year. Russell 1000 growth is underperforming its value counterpart by a wide margin, but also underperforming S&P 500 growth, which is in turn outperforming its value counterpart. This begs the question, is growth or value having a…
Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) may be hitting its peak as stocks grow more slowly than earnings. The ratio, now near its dot-com highs, is undoubtedly elevated but may be hard pressed to continue its climb.
Abstract: The AI Debt Deluge: Downgrade Risk, Not Default Risk – If You Own the Right Structure While inflation, the Fed, and the deficit have largely dominated rate news over the past twelve to eighteen months, the credit side of the fixed income market has been defined by the growing…
Business investment in AI is on track to significantly surpass all other U.S. investment booms of the last 150 years. In 2025, AI Capex accounted for 1.3% of GDP, and it is on track to account for 2.5% of GDP this year. This exceeds the impact of telecom and fiber…
Abstract: 30-Year Yield Nears 20-Year Highs, and It Isn’t Just About the Fed The 30-Year yield breached the 5.2% level recently, its highest level since 2007, and has remained above 5% since early July. While this persistently high yield on the long bond has been largely due to the erosion…