Macro Research

AI is Driving the Largest Investment and Earnings Boom in 150 Years

Business investment in AI is on track to significantly surpass all other U.S. investment booms…

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Rising Real Yields Suggest Stocks May Have a Rocky Road Ahead

Bond markets are throwing cold water on the outlook for stocks. Real yields (10-year Treasury…

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Financial Conditions and Economic Cues Make the Case for Hawkish Fed

The Fed’s recent shift toward a more hawkish bias has merit, according to measures of…

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Falling Oil Shifts Breakevens, but it Doesn’t Help the Fed

Abstract: Oil is down almost 30% over the past month, and inflation breakevens have fallen…

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Warsh is Taking the Greenspan Challenge on Price Stability

Financial markets’ inflation expectations have stabilized with peace talks in the Middle East, but it…

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Depleting Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Clouds the Fed’s Path if Hormuz Doesn’t Open

The US’ strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is hitting some of the lowest levels since the…

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Stocks-Bonds Correlation Flags Risk of Renewed Volatility

The correlation between U.S. equity prices and bond yields is signaling another risk-off period may…

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The $1 Trillion Reason Why 2026 Inflation May be Stickier than 2022

Abstract:Hyperscalers’ plans to spend more than $700 billion in 2026 and another $1 trillion in…

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A Deep Dive: New Fed Chair May Create New Regime for Financial Markets

Abstract: Monetary Policy Faces Three Big Changes with New Fed Chair With a new Chair…

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Ceasefire Reduces Downside Risks but Supply Strains Remain a Drag

Ceasefire in the Middle East is undoubtedly encouraging news, and if it leads to peace…

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If Bond Market is Right, Stocks Face an Inflation Reckoning


Even if the recent spike in commodity costs proves fleeting, a secular reality of higher…

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Wholesale Prices Show Inflation Risks Were Rising Before Middle East War


Producer prices rose at a faster than expected pace in February, continuing a streak of…

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