Business investment in AI is on track to significantly surpass all other U.S. investment booms of the last 150 years. In 2025, AI Capex accounted for 1.3% of GDP, and it is on track to account for 2.5% of GDP this year. This exceeds the impact of telecom and fiber investment at the turn of the century, which was 1.1% of GDP. Over the next few years, the economic impact of AI capex is expected to top even the railroad boom of the late 1800s, which was about 2.2% of GDP.
The earnings gain affiliated with the investment boom is likewise so far topping records. S&P 500 earnings growth has averaged nearly 20% so far in the AI boom, well north of the averages of prior cycles. Earnings for AI-focused companies have accounted for 60% of index total earnings growth so far.
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