Market Sense
Market Sense is HB Wealth's recurring economic and market research, authored by Gina Martin Adams, Michael Casper, Adam Shealy, Matthew Sanders, and Max Hurd. These insights offer perspective on current market conditions, economic trends, and investment risks across short- and long-term horizons.
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Manufacturing and Employment Were in the Spotlight This Week. This week kicked off with a series of key reads on the manufacturing economy with ISM Manufacturing PMI beating forecasts on stronger than expected new orders – another signal confirming strong economic growth. ISM’s Services PMI also cleared hurdles. Likewise, capital…
While IPOs get a ton of fanfare for their day-one “pop”, new issues tend to be significantly riskier than other stocks and often underperform the market over longer horizons. Across the largest 20 traditional US IPOs by offer size since 1990, all but five – Medline, Snowflake, AirBnB, Citizens Financial…
Investment Boom Yields Profits Windfall, Leaves Households Behind.The build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to elevate business investment to record growth levels and is powering recovery in broad economic growth. While this is resulting in soaring profits for the beneficiaries of AI-investment, it is also commanding a lot from capital…
Fed Will Wait and See for Now, Vote Less Next Year. The Fed decided to take a break from hiking rates in October despite persistent price pressures as CPI and PPI continued to run much hotter than expected. Still, two FOMC members dissented to the pause, believing they needed to…
Abstract: The IPO calendar has cooled a touch recently but is still on track to be the second-best year on record, with Anthropic set to IPO sometime before Thanksgiving as the second $1+ trillion company to issue in the U.S. this year. Initial rumors are that the company could seek…
Light Week of Economic Data Highlighted Housing Struggles. A bevy of data on housing confirmed higher yields are slowing activity, with housing starts hitting one of the lowest levels since 2020, building starts still weak and pending home sales down more than 7% month-over-month. Initial jobless claims remained lower than…
Abstract: While spreads remain near historic tights across much of the credit spectrum, CCC rated credit spreads have surged almost 500 basis points over the last 12 months, to 1,127 basis points – a level currently wider than 5 out of every 6 days since 1996. This is well beyond…
Abstract: The Russell 2000 hit correction levels – down more than 10% from its mid-August high – even while the S&P 500 continues to hover within a stone’s throw of its apex. At least some of the move is attributable to the bond selloff as small caps peaked just before…
Abstract: Most global bond markets have struggled somewhat as of late, but the move has been less broad in emerging markets relative to developed markets. Over the last year, 11 of the 15 emerging markets we track showed an increase in 10-year yield, while all 20 developed markets saw 10-year…