Market Sense: Deep Dives
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Abstract:2026 could be the best year for IPOs on record based on already completed deals and the expected size of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic offerings. Due to its low float shares outstanding, SpaceX’s effect on the S&P 500 could be limited to start. If OpenAI and Anthropic follow a similar…
Abstract:The Magnificent Seven has managed to recover its year-to-date loss with April’s rally, though most stock prices in the group remain below former peaks as the market continues to work through likely outcomes of the group’s tremendous investment in AI. Pairwise correlations are likewise dropping, demonstrating the breakup of the…
Abstract: Monetary Policy Faces Three Big Changes with New Fed Chair With a new Chair calling for “regime change” on deck and the FOMC already on a relatively uncertain hold pending impacts from the war in the Middle East, monetary policy may be set to keep markets somewhat on edge…
Abstract: After a Three-Year Recession, Manufacturing Might Be Turning the Corner The manufacturing economy may be turning a corner for the first time in three years, and this could support new leadership in US stocks. Measures of manufacturing activity have hinted at a recession-like experience for the last several years,…
Lessons from the internet buildout at the turn of the century and productivity boom in the 1960s can offer perspective on what to expect for the economy and markets as AI deployment accelerates in the years to come. Productivity expansions in 1961-1968 and 1998-2005 are the longest and strongest in…
International shares outperformed US large cap stocks by the most since 2007, and developed markets topped US stocks by the most in more than three decades in 2025, helped by flight from the dollar and valuation expansion. Earnings will likely need to kick in support to keep the party going…
There is a reason the mantra “run it hot” has become popular on investor wish lists for 2026. The “goldilocks” economy – not too hot, not too cold – prevails, but also suggests lower near-term equity market returns. Our economic cycle model analyzes 4 indicators to assess the current state…
A Deep Dive: When Will Hyperscalers Get Their Hype Back?
U.S. stocks remain off their highs and despite some relative performance improvement since the war in the Middle East broke out, have underperformed international stocks on a trailing 1-year and year to date basis. Stocks of the five hyperscalers are down 9.3% as a group in 2026, and only Alphabet…
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