Macro Research
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Lessons from the internet buildout at the turn of the century and productivity boom in the 1960s can offer perspective on what to expect for the economy and markets as AI deployment accelerates in the years to come. Productivity expansions in 1961-1968 and 1998-2005 are the longest and strongest in…
Elevated fiscal spending, easy monetary policy, trade tensions and geopolitical strains may imply inflation risk is re-emerging in 2026. This could take consensus views, focused more squarely on potential job losses as AI-initiatives are implemented, off guard this year. Materials and energy are two of the top performing sectors in…
Metals prices are breaking records so far in 2026, hitting new all-time price highs and recording rates of price change last touched in 1979. Back then, prices rose until higher interest rates and a painful recession emerged. This time, gold might continue to run until geopolitical stability or an effort…
The FOMC paused rate cuts in January, with stabilizing labor markets and inflation pressures offering little reason to ease more at the current time. They didn’t need to ease more to stay easy anyway – after three consecutive declines in the benchmark rate in late 2025 the Taylor rule suggests…
The jobs market has signaled a weak economy for years, even as other indicators such as corporate profits suggest the economy is holding up reasonably well. This may help explain why consumer confidence remains near record low levels, even as the stock market is at record highs. The unemployment rate…
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