Market Sense
Market Sense is HB Wealth's recurring economic and market research, authored by Gina Martin Adams, Michael Casper, Adam Shealy, Matthew Sanders, and Max Hurd. These insights offer perspective on current market conditions, economic trends, and investment risks across short- and long-term horizons.
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Abstract: Growth and value indices are sending a lot of mixed messages this year. Russell 1000 growth is underperforming its value counterpart by a wide margin, but also underperforming S&P 500 growth, which is in turn outperforming its value counterpart. This begs the question, is growth or value having a…
Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) may be hitting its peak as stocks grow more slowly than earnings. The ratio, now near its dot-com highs, is undoubtedly elevated but may be hard pressed to continue its climb.
Abstract: The AI Debt Deluge: Downgrade Risk, Not Default Risk – If You Own the Right Structure While inflation, the Fed, and the deficit have largely dominated rate news over the past twelve to eighteen months, the credit side of the fixed income market has been defined by the growing…
Business investment in AI is on track to significantly surpass all other U.S. investment booms of the last 150 years. In 2025, AI Capex accounted for 1.3% of GDP, and it is on track to account for 2.5% of GDP this year. This exceeds the impact of telecom and fiber…
Abstract: 30-Year Yield Nears 20-Year Highs, and It Isn’t Just About the Fed The 30-Year yield breached the 5.2% level recently, its highest level since 2007, and has remained above 5% since early July. While this persistently high yield on the long bond has been largely due to the erosion…
U.S. jobs growth is weakening again, but it will not likely materially impact the run rate of corporate profits, which are getting a boost from surging business investment on everything but employees. U.S. companies are not laying off workers, but they aren’t hiring many either.
Abstract: Breadth Sending Bullish Cues as Capitalization Distorts Sector View Resurgent price breadth and a preference for smaller-cap shares in 2026 have caused the equal weighted Bloomberg 1000 to outperform its cap weighted peer and are likewise driving some notable sector performance divergences. Breadth has recovered smartly after a huge…
Abstract: July was the worst calendar month for Russell 3000 growth relative to its value peer since 2001, and extends a streak favoring value that began last year. From its peak on October 29, 2025, through the end of July 2026, Russell 3000 growth is down roughly 3% while value…
Economic Growth Still Steady, Carried by Investment. Tariffs are Back. The build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers continues to elevate business investment and profits, framing a constructive backdrop for risk assets, even at somewhat extended valuations. Job growth is improving after slumping in 2025, helping to keep consumer spending…