Can Stocks Defy Gravity in 2026? – Part 2

December 2, 2025
A person stands on a mountain peak overlooking blue mountains under a clear sky. Text reads: Market Sense by HB Wealth: Can Stocks Defy Gravity in 2026? - Part 2. December 2, 2025.
Bar chart showing S&P 500 forward 12-month returns after extremes in 36-month rolling returns. Returns range from +26.1% at -2 std dev to -3.3% at +2 std dev, with both average and median forward returns shown.

The S&P 500’s 36-Month Rolling Return neared 2 standard deviations from norm in September. The chart below shows what historically happened after extremes were reached in the measure. The more extreme the deviation, the lower the return prospects.

Likewise, such extreme deviations above norm generally lower the probability of a positive return in the forward 12 months. The index was higher about 40% of the time after at least a standard deviation surge beyond norms, while it was higher more than 75% of the time after a drop of at least a standard deviation.

Download the PDF

HB Wealth is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser and the information provided is for informational purposes only. Additionally, the information should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of HB Wealth. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A woman with long brown hair wearing a blue blazer and a necklace smiles at the camera. The background is softly blurred with light and blue tones.

Gina Martin Adams, CFA, CMT

Chief Market Strategist, Shareholder

Gina Martin Adams, CFA, CMT, is the Chief Market Strategist for HB Wealth. With more than 25 years of experience at leading global financial institutions, Adams brings deep expertise in market analysis, thematic research, and translating complex economic trends into actionable strategies. She collaborates with HB Wealth’s investment team to deliver timely market perspectives, share actionable insights, and enhance the firm’s visibility as a leading voice in the industry. She contributes to advancing proprietary research, supporting the development of new investment products, and enhancing the client experience through thought leadership and education. She pursues a top-down perspective and model-based approach, leveraging fundamental, technical, and quantitative perspectives to inform investment decisions, and frequently presents her views in the media and at industry conferences, professional associations and investment organizations.

Read Full Bio

A young man with short brown hair, wearing a dark suit, white shirt, and blue tie, stands in front of a blurred background with lights and blue tones.

Matthew

Senior Investment Research Analyst

Read Full Bio

Related Insights & News

View from an airplane window showing a wingtip against a clear blue sky, with scattered white clouds over a vast landscape below.

Global Mobility: Key Considerations for High-Net-Worth Families

Global mobility strategies, such as alternative residency or citizenship programs, are increasingly part of conversations…

Read More

A person stands on a rocky peak overlooking mountains under a blue sky. Text reads: “Market Sense by HB Wealth. Can the Bull Keep Charging in 2026? December 22, 2025.”.

Can the Bull Keep Charging in 2026?

The S&P 500 is on pace for a third consecutive year of more than 15%…

Read More

A person stands on a mountain peak overlooking blue hills. Text reads: Market Sense by HB Wealth. Can Lower CPI Boost Stocks? December 19, 2025.

Can Lower CPI Boost Stocks?

After rising for the bulk of the summer, consumer prices finally eased somewhat this fall,…

Read More

A winding dirt road runs through a green field under a blue sky with clouds. Text reads “2025 Market Themes & Developments.” The image includes the HB Wealth logo in the bottom right corner.

Markets in 2025: Key Themes and Developments Shaping the Year Ahead

2025 was a year marked by heightened volatility, fast-moving headlines, and shifting policy dynamics. Markets…

Read More

The above is not a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security and is not legal, investment or tax advice. Results are not guaranteed. All investing involves risk.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results for any investment. Private alternative investments are not for every client. An individual must be qualified to invest in a private investment based on their net worth and/or other criteria, and they may qualify to invest in some alternative investments while not being allowed to invest in other alternative investments. Alternative investments are not risk-free and there is no guarantee of achieving attractive performance compared to similar liquid investments. Risks associated with investments in private alternatives include the illiquid nature of such investments, risks associated with leveraged investments, manager-specific risks, sector-specific risks, and in certain cases geographical risk, as well as the risk of loss of principal.